Bitcoin (BTC) price tumbled nearly 8% in the last 24 hours as the U.S. dollar index continues to move above 110, making the crypto and equities markets weak ahead of the Fed‘s FOMC meeting on September 20-21. Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts BTC price could fall below $13,900, and to $11,500 in an extreme scenario.
Historical Data Indicates Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Fall Further
In the monthly timeframe, the Bitcoin price is currently struggling to surpass the $20,000 level, showing a weakness. The $20,000-$23,350 range will mostly decide bears and bulls here. The price movements in July and August indicate the difference in the buy-side pressure, with $20,000 as support.
However, price movement in September has been so weak and suggests $20,000 is now turning into a resistance level. If the month ends with Bitcoin (BTC) price below the $20,000 level, the next support levels are $17,165 and $13,900.
Historically, the Bitcoin (BTC) price forms a bottom at or below the 200-weekly moving average (WMA) after a Death Cross. The post-Death Cross retracements have been in the range of -42% to -73%.
Therefore, considering the historical post-Death Cross retracements and support levels, the Bitcoin price to bottom at around $13,900. In the extreme scenario, the BTC price to bottom at $11,500.
As the BTC price is already below the 200-WMA and psychological level of $20,000, the downside seems most likely. However, there is a massive difference in market cap size, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin now as compared to earlier times.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days before the Bitcoin Halving in 2015 and 517 days before the Bitcoin Halving in 2018. Therefore, if Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving, then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year.
Macros Impacting BTC Price
Despite a growing number of new daily addresses, the Bitcoin price continues to dive below $20,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price will mostly depend on the Fed rate hike on September 21. Wall Street experts such as Goldman Sachs predict a 75 bps rate hike in September and 50 bps rate hikes in November and December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike is 80%.
Currently, the BTC price is trading above the $19,000 level after recovering nearly 4% from the 24-hour bottom at $18,390. If the U.S. dollar index remains near 110, the BTC price will be under pressure.