December month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas Employment Change could ease to 22.5K versus the previous addition of 64.0K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.8% prior level.
Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers’ recent retreat from the hawkish bias, in line with their global counterpart, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,
Leading indicators suggest there will be another robust print for employment growth in December (Westpac forecast: 30k). The unemployment rate should meanwhile hold steady (Westpac forecast: 3.4%).
On the same line, analysts at the ANZ mentioned,
Given the tightness in the labor market, we expect solid employment growth to have continued in December with a 35k rise, participation to stay around November’s record high and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.4%. While job vacancies dropped 5% q/q in November, they are still very high relative to history and NAB’s Employment Index is also well above average.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in two weeks while staying around the highest levels since mid-August 2022, mildly bid near 0.6945 by the press time. In doing so, the Aussie pair cheers the broad US Dollar weakness and stays hopeful of witnessing upbeat data, not to forget cautious optimism in the market.
However, the recent Fed talks suggest a hawkish move and contrast the other central bankers which are on the verge of announcing less aggressive monetary policies going forward. As a result, the market’s sentiment remains mixed and can weigh on the AUD/USD prices should the scheduled Aussie numbers fail to impress the pair buyers.
Technically, Wednesday’s U-turn from the highest levels since mid-August 2022 portrays a rising wedge bearish chart pattern on the daily formation, currently between 0.7020 and 0.6810.
Key Notes
AUD/USD pauses pullback from five-month high near 0.6950 ahead of Aussie employment data
AUD/USD Forecast: Bearish case should gain adepts once below 0.6930
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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- Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-australian-employment-report-and-how-could-it-affect-aud-usd-202301182332